On July 11, the Oklahoma City Thunder traded Russell Westbrook to the Houston Rockets in exchange for Chris Paul, a 2024 first round pick, a 2026 first round pick, a 2021 swap, and a 2025 swap. Houston sacrificing its future and going all in on a championship in the next 1-2 years begs the question: Will Westbrook fit into the Rockets’ system and be the upgrade from Chris Paul they need to win a title?
First, let’s compare the two players. Westbrook is 6-3, 200lb, while Paul is only 6-0, 175lb. Despite Chris Paul’s skill and playmaking ability, Westbrook is harder for defenses to handle, due to his ability to drive to the paint. Westbrook is also 4 years younger than Paul, and is one of the most athletic players in the league. For the past 3 seasons, Westbrook has averaged a triple-double, so he should be able to help the Rockets on both ends of the floor by providing more much-needed rebounds.
Although Westbrook averaged 7.3 more points, 6.5 more rebounds, and 2.5 more assists than Paul next season, the question is whether or not he will be able to maintain his statistics while integrating into the Rockets’ system. Paul and Westbrook have roughly the same field goal percentage, but the areas where Paul outshines Westbrook raise some concern.
The Rockets’ system relies heavily on taking 3 pointers, even if they are a lower-percentage shot, over mid-range jumpers because the advantage of 3 pointers being worth more than 2 is greater than the disadvantage of having a lower chance of making the shot. Westbrook’s 3-point field goal percentage was 6.8% less than Paul’s last season, causing him to opt for mid-range jump shots which he struggled with as well. Westbrook also shot only 65.6% from the free-throw line, 20.6% worse than Paul. However, if Westbrook can focus on shooting 3 pointers, free throws, and his shot selection this offseason, he shouldn’t have too many problems fitting into the Rockets’ system, especially with James Harden running the offense.
Was this trade ultimately worth it for the Rockets? Giving up the chance to draft new players and build up their team to gamble on a superstar bringing them a championship? A team in playoff contention giving up picks to strengthen their team immediately is not a bad strategy because it at least shows the General Manager cares about winning. And despite the Rockets already being a solid playoff team with Chris Paul, the Toronto Raptors proved that sometimes you have to take a big risk and change up one of your franchise players to win a ring. Hopefully Westbrook gives the Rockets’ the boost they need to become a championship team once again.
Sources:
- https://www.basketball-reference.com/
- @ShamsCharania, Senior lead NBA Insider/Writer/Analyst for The Athletic and Stadium
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